Freedom House’s latest Nations in Transit report shows democracy across Central Europe to Central Asia has declined for the 20th year in a row. Autocrats are cracking down harder, coordinating with each other to dodge sanctions, silence opposition, and normalize aggression like Russia’s war on Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh.
At the same time, democratic resilience still shows up where people mobilize in large numbers. Poland offers a clear example: despite the ruling party’s electoral manipulation, voter turnout hit record levels and handed victory to a pro-democracy coalition, opening the door to repair years of damage to institutions and the rule of law. Ukraine is the only “hybrid” regime moving in a democratic direction, while others are sliding back or stuck in partisan deadlock.
The report warns that democracies cannot just rely on elections and trade deals—they need to invest more in military readiness and back Ukraine decisively. If not, authoritarian expansion will continue, raising costs not only in Europe but for democracies worldwide, including the United States.
Key flashpoints:
- Poland – Despite electoral manipulation, record turnout flipped power to a pro-democracy coalition, showing mass mobilization can still reverse backsliding.
- Ukraine – The only hybrid state improving, even while under Russian attack.
- Azerbaijan – Conquest and ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh exposed how unchecked autocracies export violence.
- U.S. reliability in question – Political shifts in Washington have left European allies doubting America’s long-term commitment as a security guarantor, pressuring democracies to build stronger independent defense and solidarity networks.
The takeaway: elections and institutions aren’t enough. Democracies must expand support for civic rights, strengthen military preparedness, and decisively back Ukraine—or risk letting authoritarian expansion harden into a permanent new order.
→ Read more at Freedom House
Critical Mass: Three Point Five Percent 