Authoritarian Watch

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3.5% Rule’: The Anti-Trump Movement Is Nearing an Important Threshold

MSNBC by The Rachel Maddow

An excerpt from The Rachel Maddow Show highlights how the recent No Kings rallies signal a new stage of organized, nonviolent resistance. Seven million people took part nationwide — one of the largest single-day protest turnouts in U.S. history — as thousands of local events replaced the old model of single-city marches. Drawing on new research from Harvard’s Kennedy School, Maddow connects this decentralized momentum to political scientist Erica Chenoweth’s “3.5 percent rule,” which shows that when roughly 3.5 percent of a population engages in sustained, peaceful protest, movements almost always prevail. With participation expanding into traditionally pro-Trump counties, the data suggest that the U.S. is edging closer to that historic threshold where disciplined, nonviolent action can deliver real change.

➜ Read the full article at MSNBC

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The Founders Would Have Been on the Front Lines of No Kings Day

The Fulcrum, Oct. 19, 2025 — by Ronald L. Hirsch

Hirsch effectively argues that No Kings Day stands firmly in the American tradition of resisting concentrated, unaccountable power. He revisits the Declaration of Independence’s bill of particulars against King George—dissolving representative bodies, subordinating courts, swelling patronage and enforcement—and maps those warnings onto today’s executive overreach and contempt for checks and balances. Despite attempts to smear the protests as extremist, the piece frames them as a civic duty: a peaceful defense of constitutional balance through participation, not violence. The takeaway: opposing would-be monarchy isn’t anti-American—it’s the point of the American experiment.

➜ Read the full story at The Fulcrum

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Why Nonviolent Protest Can Work When We Actually Try It

Nick Allison challenges the fatalism that says peaceful protest has “already been tried.” Drawing on data from Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan, he argues that disciplined nonviolent movements succeed far more often than violent uprisings—and that no campaign reaching even 3.5 percent of a population’s active participation has ever failed. From Gandhi to King to Havel, history shows the power of organized nonviolence, and Allison contends Americans have yet to test it at scale. His call isn’t for revolution but for civic discipline: fill the streets, stay peaceful, and defend democracy without surrendering the moral high ground. Violence, he warns, only feeds authoritarianism; sustained, visible nonviolence erodes it.

➜ Read the full essay at The Fulcrum.

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Indivisible Group Directory (Live Resource)

One of the biggest challenges in defending democracy is simply knowing where to plug in. The Indivisible Group Directory is helping to solve that problem by mapping thousands of grassroots organizations across the country, so you can find a local group, connect with others, or even start one yourself.

The hub organizes groups by city and congressional district, includes a Create a Group tool, and highlights ongoing campaigns in its Take Action section. Indivisible emphasizes a clear Commitment to Nonviolence, making it a practical entry point for anyone ready to organize against authoritarianism and build democratic power at home.

→ Learn more and get organized at Indivisible

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No Kings: National Day of Action, October 18


On October 18, the No Kings coalition is organizing a National Day of Action with one clear message: America has no kings, and power belongs to the people. Their call is rooted in disciplined nonviolence — organizers stress de-escalation, lawful action, and a strict ban on weapons at events. Trainings on protest safety and “know your rights” are underway, equipping participants to resist authoritarian drift without feeding cycles of violence.

→ Read more at No Kings

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The Very Specific Way America Could Become Authoritarian


Vox, Sept. 23, 2025 — by Cameron Peters (interview with Zack Beauchamp)
This conversation breaks down how the Trump administration is edging the U.S. toward “competitive authoritarianism” — not outright dictatorship, but a system where opposition technically exists yet is systematically weakened. Through tactics like pressuring media (e.g. Jimmy Kimmel’s suspension), threatening civil society groups, and coercing corporations, Trump is testing how far he can “slice” democratic freedoms without triggering mass resistance. Political scientist Zack Beauchamp warns that the danger lies in acquiescence: if each attack is treated as isolated, the cumulative effect could hollow out democracy before most realize what’s happened. The antidote? Collective defiance — across media, business, politics, and civil society — to stop salami-slicing before it becomes consolidation.


→ Read the full story at Vox

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American Democracy Might Be Stronger Than Donald Trump


POLITICO Magazine, Sept. 19, 2025 — by Jonathan Schlefer

Schlefer argues that while Trump threatens democratic norms, the U.S. has unusual sources of resilience compared with countries that slid into autocracy. Rich, long-lived democracies rarely die; the U.S. presidential system’s checks and balances make wholesale court-packing and constitutional rewrites harder than in parliamentary systems; and Trump’s popularity is far below the sky-high approval that enabled figures like Fujimori and Bukele to crush checks. A robust legal profession and civil society can resist overreach, and the Supreme Court—even with conservative justices—has limits and incentives that don’t align with blind Trumpism. Risks remain (inequality, polarization, episodic lawlessness, rising political violence), but large, nonviolent protest—including movements approaching the 1–3.5% participation range—signals broad opposition and can deter authoritarian consolidation. Bottom line: U.S. democracy is wounded, not doomed.

Read the full story → https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/09/19/american-democracy-resilience-00548910

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How Immigration Enforcement is Being Used to Dismantle Democracy


NILC, June 9, 2025 — by Heidi Altman

The National Immigration Law Center documents how the Trump administration has turned immigration enforcement into a testing ground for authoritarian power. Since January 2025, Trump has invoked emergency and wartime laws to bypass courts, ordered National Guard and even Marine deployments to U.S. streets without state consent, and used the Alien Enemies Act to deport men without hearings to prisons abroad. Courts have repeatedly found the government in contempt for ignoring judicial orders, yet deportations continue. Alongside attempts to revoke birthright citizenship and limit due process, the administration has also targeted students, scholars, and even elected officials for opposition, escalating to arrests and criminal charges. The report warns these tactics fit the authoritarian pattern: consolidate power by demonizing a vulnerable group, then expand the tools against anyone in the way.

👉 Read the full story at NILC

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A Green Light for Authoritarianism: How the Trump Administration Fuels Global Autocracy

American Progress, Sept. 19, 2025

The Trump administration has dismantled key U.S. pro-democracy programs, cutting funding to USAID, the National Endowment for Democracy, and Voice of America, while signaling support or indifference toward authoritarian leaders. These retreats have emboldened strongmen in Serbia, Hungary, and Turkey to escalate crackdowns on civil society, opposition leaders, and LGBTQ+ rights. The result is a global environment where autocrats act with impunity, eroding U.S. influence and accelerating democratic backsliding worldwide.

→ Read the full story at American Progress