Journal of Democracy, 2020 — by Erica Chenoweth
Nonviolent civil resistance has become the most common way people challenge regimes, peaking in 2019 with mass uprisings across dozens of countries. Yet success rates dipped in the 2010s. Chenoweth argues the decline isn’t only because states got savvier; movements also changed: peak participation has been smaller, campaigns over-rely on big marches (and underuse disruptive tactics like general strikes), digital organizing boosts turnout but weakens long-term structure and makes surveillance easier, and violent “flanks” sap legitimacy. Even so, nonviolent campaigns still outperform violent ones by a wide margin because broad numbers drive disruption and elite defections. The pandemic briefly paused street protests but pushed organizers toward relationship-building, strategy, mutual aid, and diversified tactics—ingredients that make movements more durable. Takeaway: disciplined nonviolence, large and diverse participation, and sustained organizing are what bend outcomes, including against authoritarian drift.
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Critical Mass: Three Point Five Percent 